Are we in a rare price bubble?

You know what I noticed last weekend, I’ve noticed this every single weekend since the event.

There was 345 or 350 active player, at 11:30 pm, When it rolled over to 1:00am EST I checked again and it was about 103 active players.

250 people logged out as soon as it hit 12:00am EST.

Those are not player’s playing the game because they are having fun and enjoying the game, they are playing because they feel like they are being forced to play.

1 Like

If you’re playing this game solely for the rares, you’re playing it for the wrong reason. I don’t see how not having a paper hat in your bank puts you at a massive disadvantage? If you want to benefit your account in any way from getting a rare, you’ll have to sell it.

2 Likes

Not necessarily man. 95%+ of my bank value in RS3 is rares and they legit made the game enjoyable for me long after Jagex ruined everything else about it.

A participation trophy contrasts a trophy given based on merit. This conversation has nothing to do with that comparison because these are given based on RNG and not merit.

Increasing the odds of “rares” to make them each more attainable while still leaving the individual rare item as incredibly rare is very possible. Jagex made it possible for everyone to get every rare - this is not even close to what people are suggesting even if they said each person should get one “rare”.

Are you using the “participation trophy” verbiage as a means to insult people or make them feel like a group of “entitled people”? That is the way it seems to me so I’d like to clear that up.

My ultimate fear with how rare the rares are, is that enough of them are owned by very wealthy and quickly turn to astronomical prices (which has started to happen). The way to remedy rare hoarding (which was a HUGE problem for Jagex) would be to increase supply to make it less worth hoarding.

All of this to say - we are not in a bubble if rates do not increase, we ARE in a bubble if they do increase. I’m not sure how much it would have to increase though.

And I do not think many think Pazaz is doing a bad job. I would pay for membership to support if that didn’t go contrary to ultimate purpose. I’d send him a birthday card with $20 in it and a note saying “thanks”. We are voicing an opinion in hopes that if enough voice - it will change - but if enough say the opposite I’m fine with that too. This is one of very little instances where our voice could actually make a change due to the nature of the project.

2 Likes

You like playing RS3 because your rares are rare, but you don’t want them to be rare on Lost City? I mean, a new player starting to play RS3 today won’t be able to buy a cracker for 215b anytime soon.

1 Like

The way I see it is: if you have so few rares in the game the bigger Impact they have, the bigger impact they have means the more they will be worth short term, but fewer people will have them, so fewer people will end up enjoying playing the game, which will lead to negative growth and new players not wanting to start fresh accounts and less players

The more that enter the game, will mean the less impact they have, which means the less they will be worth short term but you will have an increase in player growth which will start to drive them to slowly go up which will lead to more people being happy and playing the game and more concurrent active players which will lead to long term growth and more players

That is my view if you want to disagree and call me wrong, you are free to do so. Screenshot my comments and show me i’m completely wrong in 6-12 months.

It’s likely impossible to see both version though actually because we are likely going to get route A but, I do think slayer will be a big draw for new players so that will help a lot.

1 Like

I don’t really play anymore but I enjoyed them even when they were uncommon. In 2004/5 santas were something you’d see of your slightly more successful fellow f2p yew cutter friends before you’d had time to nag your parents for membership 4 months in.

I’d like them to be rare someday but ultimately I’d also like them to be common enough that they sell for an amount of money that doesn’t burn people out to grind for. If I could see God’s supply and demand price graph, I’d set the supply at a point where in takes the average player a week of casual play to buy a santa/mask and a month of casual play to buy a phat type thing. Ideally fluctuating when new content is released but ultimately trending upward. You know, like it did the first time.

Edit: I feel like we’ll know we screwed up if dchains are released and the first few don’t sell for more than a phat.

3 Likes

I don’t necessarily think you’re wrong, but I think you’re overestimating the impact rares will have on the growth and player count of the server. I don’t think the biggest reason behind OSRS being successful is the fact that they made rares common.

I think we have kind of already seen a bit of negative growth. The first weekend for rares was what 550-600 players at peak?

Last weekend was about 340-375 plays at peak?
So about -200 players

I don’t know what the exact reason but My guess is they got pissed grinding for 40 hours slaved to a screen all weekend pointlessly and didnt get anything. Threw in the towel and said I don’t want to do this for another 16 weeks.

Or maybe they just are busy and have lives maybe a various different reasons.

And no it’s not the biggest reason, the biggest reason is forsure the content and the updates, which is also why I think slayer is going to be a massive draw and Farming also for some :stuck_out_tongue: I love farming

Rare’s may not be the biggest elephant in the room, but they are a pretty damn big elephant.

1 Like

New updates always generate more hype at launch than they do a few weeks later. Nothing strange about that at all, imo.

I would agree with this. I would guess there was an increase in excitement then the following weeks a realization that this isn’t going to be an easy grind.

I think if more rares had been dropping and people started getting super hyped up the first weekend, and if they included week days as well as weekends it would of started to generate hype and have a snowball effect.
I honestly think we would of started seeing Positive growth. I think it would of went to 700-800 players maybe even 1k peaks.

It’s impossible to tell because we don’t live in that reality but thats my view on it.

I honestly remember standing in varrock bank and it was about 10-12 hours before 1 single rare dropped and people we’re like what… this is gonna be so hard to get one, screw this.

I hadn’t seen varrock bank popping off that hard since F2P days honestly.

I see what you’re saying. The part I would agree on is that the nature of how it seems rares are attained has promoted a “busy” feel to the weekends. Everyone feels like that have to be doing something or they are missing an opportunity because we have only seen, as far as I’m aware, rares being prompted by an action or a click prior to logging out.

I think you really just needed to force that snowball rolling in a positive direction, and ride the momentum.

Right now rares just seem so rare people are completely gutted, they don’t even want to bother trying because it seems so unattainable it’s pointless.

I think like the first hour you should of just dropped a cracker, because 8-10 hours was crazy bro people we’re losing it lmao.

I was standing in the middle of varrock bank and i’m telling you the vibe was straight up depression haha.

As crazy as it sounds I think if a few more rares started popping that vibe would have went from depression to hype and excitment instantly. To me that alone say’s that yes rare do have an impact.

one rare every 2 hours is tough if that’s what you’re chasing, whether that’s intended or not.

RS3 has a 20-year lead on this project though. RS3-tier rarity should take many years for this project to reach, which means they need to be more common now.

I think the point I was making was to start the event off with a Bang, you had almost 800 people logging back in for the first time in god knows how long.

Give them a party, it should of been hype.
Is that not the whole point of a “Rare event” ?

Not 100 of us standing in varrock bank high alching for 10 hours being depressed, and wanting to kill ourselves (in game) lmao. Zero rares.

If that’s what you got out of what I tried to communicate than i don’t know, I guess i’m doing a poor job here. Regardless, I’ve said enough I should go do something more productive lmao.

It wasn’t that long before I announced the first roll. A few hours yes. And it should go without saying but I did not want to force and fake it for added “hype” :slight_smile: I’ve let random be random so the lore built is the community’s. There is no guided hand at play crafting your experience.

These items are RSC items. This event from the start was a bonus to people already playing, to get some history out, and to encourage more players to make memories together. Our player counts would be lower across the board if players were only waiting for updates, I would be more inclined to think rares weekends are masking the true count rather than dragging the weeks down.

I’ve fought an uphill battle every step of the way from friends to strangers. My git contributors and staff did not want these added in the first place. Some were okay with my solution if they were added that way and accepted it.
I don’t need affirmations and have a plan in mind to see through regardless. I’m just letting you know, the only bits of fun I get is in the joy I’ve seen! I don’t even get to play with you.

These days very few ask about the hobby that’s behind all this. I spend my free time working on LC because I know this kind of initiative needs to exist and be seen to completion. I waited years and no one did anything sooner. Feelsbadman when all the work and effort put in gets overshadowed by these items and it isn’t even from RS2.

14 Likes

I understand hard and difficult work that goes under appreciated. I think we all do truly appreciate you and what you have done brother and I really wish you could play the game with us honestly.

I go on long winded rant’s out of love and I know you have to have true passion to even start a project like this from the ground up. It’s certainly better than anything I could have put together so I have to tip my hat.

I wouldn’t even waste my time trying to type half this stuff if I didn’t share absolute and sincere passion about this project, maybe in-fact my flaw is that I care too much. Everything I said and I say is out of pure love and passion for the game and 2004 runescape in general. I have probably ranted off for far too long about it anyways and I know you are doing the absolute best job you can. I Just want the project as a whole to be a success, and I really do appreciate everything you have done.

For what it’s worth I think your passion for preserving this little piece of history is crystal clear to everyone who dedicate a few minutes to looking into what Lost City actually is, and it’s truly amazing and extremely selfless of you and those working with you to give the rest of us this unique opportunity to play the favorite era of our favorite game.

I can only imagine what seeing all of the countless derailments of genuine discussions must feel like, but I also get the feeling that while a few people spew hate and have no interest in understanding each other, there’s dozens of people having fun, seeking out new friendships and sharing memories, old and new, from our second home.

Thanks for making all this possible👑

4 Likes